Electrolyte industry changes
Electrolyte is an important material of lithium battery, which accounts for about 4% - 6% of the cost of lithium battery.
High growth in demand
According to the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicles, by 2020, the output of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million, and the cumulative production and sales will exceed 5 million. In 2017, the domestic output of new energy vehicles will be 814000, and the cumulative production will be about 1.8 million. There is still 3.2 million space for 5 million vehicles in 2020.
Although the state subsidies are declining year by year, the double points policy relay has become a new driving force for the development of domestic new energy vehicles. In addition to policy driven, the continuous introduction of popular models that meet the needs of consumers will also drive the new energy vehicle market to continue to improve. It is estimated that the domestic production of new energy vehicles will reach 1.936 million in 2020. Due to the increase in the proportion of high-end models, the electric capacity of single vehicle will also increase. If we consider the annual demand of old battery replacement, lease or replacement mode, it is estimated that the domestic demand for power battery will reach 104gwh by 2020.
From the perspective of application fields of consumer batteries, the penetration rate of mobile phones, tablet computers and power tools is high, and the growth rate is expected to be stable in the next 3-5 years. Based on comprehensive calculation, it is estimated that by 2020, the total domestic demand for lithium batteries will be 153gwh, and the corresponding electrolyte demand will reach 227000 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25% from 2018 to 2020.
The industry will usher in three major changes
The decline of electrolyte price since the first quarter of 2017 is mainly due to the price reduction of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the price reduction of lithium hexafluorophosphate is due to the gradual homogenization of products and the gradual oversupply. In the future, the industry will usher in three major changes. First of all, small manufacturers will be phased out due to the disadvantages of cost and technology, the binding relationship between downstream battery enterprises and leading suppliers will accelerate the improvement of concentration, and the electrolyte industry is expected to realize the rapid clearing of production capacity; second, the high-end power battery will bring the electrolyte upgrade, and the electrolyte manufacturers are expected to improve their profitability by developing new additives
and providing formula services; Third, the electrolyte manufacturers will have the opportunity to enter the domestic market.